Time Has A Way

One thing I've learned over the years in life and politics is, time has a way of proving or disproving how predictions might go. In the political world, we're always hearing predictions of how things will go if we do a certain thing or don't do certain things. For instance, back a few years ago, as county officials discussed and debated a new jail addition, there were those who said $17,500,000.00 wasn't enough money for the project and that the new 275 bed addition/remodel chosen for the jail would be full the day it opened, it must be bigger. Eight years later, the new jail addition generally stays about half full. There were those who said if the county tightened up our zoning policies, as the vast majority of citizens wanted, it would kill property values. Turns out, property values continue to go up. There are many other examples.

All that said to say this, way, way back in June of 2024, in the heat of the discussion of building a new middle/high school on the north end of the county was on going, there were those who said the information pertaining to residential development, especially in Lenoir City, I had been publishing on my website was wrong, inaccurate and speculation and shouldn't be considered reliable. Here we are just about seven months later, let's see how some of those predictions turned out.

At the June 2024 county commission meeting, Loudon County school board administrators gave a point by point explanation on the needs of the school system. Of those many points, referenced was the map of development I had recently published on my site. There were several people who took issue with my development reports, including one of my fellow commissioners. It was stated that I shouldn't be counting the 276 apartments by Food City because, the developer hadn't even bought the property yet. How about now? I guess the same argument could have been made about the 60 DR Horton homes going in on Town Creek Road West. That property was only purchased back in December. 

It was also stated that another development, Haven Hills, that had been platted for 164 homes actually only had 31 homes. How about now? 87 new homes in varying states from complete to just breaking ground and many more on the way.

It was stated that I shouldn't be counting the developments already completed because those kids are already here. Well duh, that's why the schools are over crowded already. It was also stated that some of the developments I had listed were dormant, well duh again. All developments are dormant until somebody builds them. 

Obviously, when a developer asks for the highest density zoning available, R-3/24 units per acre, they may not be able to get the full 24 in but you can bet they will put as many units as possible in the smallest area possible. We've seen that time after time.

When a property is rezoned, we know the maximum density allowed but until platted, it's absolutely speculation on how many units will be built. Once platted, we know exactly how many units a developer plans to to build. 

When it comes to information I post, I take great effort in accuracy. Sure, I'm going to make a mistake from time to time, but when I do, I will correct it immediately. I sure hope others who have gotten it so wrong so far will also make corrections.

Like I said, time has a way of proving who's right and who's wrong.

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2/17/25